2025年3月份CPI同比降幅收(shou)窄 核(he)心CPI回(hui)升
——國家統(tong)計局城市司首席(xi)統(tong)計師董莉娟解(jie)讀(du)2025年(nian)3月份CPI和(he)PPI數據
3月份，居民消(xiao)(xiao)費價(jia)格指數（CPI）環比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降0.4%，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降0.1%，降幅明(ming)顯(xian)收窄(zhai)；工業生產者出廠(chang)價(jia)格指數（PPI）環比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降0.4%，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降2.5%。這(zhe)主(zhu)要受季節性、國際(ji)輸入(ru)性因素等影響。從邊(bian)際(ji)變(bian)化看，提振(zhen)消(xiao)(xiao)費需求等政策效應進一(yi)步顯(xian)現，核心(xin)CPI明(ming)顯(xian)回(hui)升(sheng)，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)上漲0.5%，供需結構有所改善，價(jia)格呈現一(yi)些積極變(bian)化。
一、CPI環比降幅小于季節性，同比降幅收窄(zhai)，核心CPI明顯回升
CPI環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)主要受(shou)季(ji)節性因素(su)和油價(jia)(jia)(jia)下行影響(xiang)(xiang)。一是(shi)天氣轉(zhuan)暖，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)鮮(xian)(xian)活(huo)食品大(da)量上市，食品供應總(zong)體充足。3月份食品價(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)1.4%，影響(xiang)(xiang)CPI環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)0.24個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點，占CPI總(zong)降(jiang)(jiang)幅六成(cheng)。其中，鮮(xian)(xian)菜、豬(zhu)肉(rou)、雞蛋和鮮(xian)(xian)果價(jia)(jia)(jia)格分(fen)(fen)(fen)別下降(jiang)(jiang)5.1%、4.4%、3.1%和1.6%，合計影響(xiang)(xiang)CPI環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)0.22個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。二(er)是(shi)旅(lv)游淡季(ji)出行人數(shu)減少(shao)，出行類(lei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格有(you)所(suo)下降(jiang)(jiang)。其中，飛機票和旅(lv)游價(jia)(jia)(jia)格分(fen)(fen)(fen)別下降(jiang)(jiang)11.5%和5.9%，合計影響(xiang)(xiang)CPI環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)0.13個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。三是(shi)國(guo)際油價(jia)(jia)(jia)下行影響(xiang)(xiang)。國(guo)內(nei)汽油價(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)3.5%，影響(xiang)(xiang)CPI環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)0.12個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。
提振消(xiao)費(fei)需求等政策效(xiao)應(ying)逐(zhu)漸顯(xian)現(xian)，加之春(chun)節錯月(yue)影(ying)響(xiang)消(xiao)退，更多方面顯(xian)現(xian)出明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)的(de)(de)積極變化。一(yi)是CPI環(huan)比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)小于近十年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)平(ping)均水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)，工(gong)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)擴(kuo)大。CPI環(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)0.4%，降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)小于近十年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)平(ping)均水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)0.2個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。“以舊換(huan)新”等政策效(xiao)應(ying)逐(zhu)漸顯(xian)現(xian)，扣(kou)除能源的(de)(de)工(gong)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.5%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴(kuo)大0.3個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，其中家用器具(ju)、金飾品(pin)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)服(fu)(fu)裝價(jia)(jia)格(ge)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.8%、2.3%和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)0.7%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)均高于近十年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)平(ping)均水(shui)(shui)(shui)平(ping)。二是CPI同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)收窄(zhai)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)收窄(zhai)0.6個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。其中，食(shi)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.4%，降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)收窄(zhai)1.9個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，對(dui)(dui)CPI同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)的(de)(de)下(xia)拉影(ying)響(xiang)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)減(jian)少約(yue)0.35個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。食(shi)品(pin)中，牛(niu)肉(rou)、鮮(xian)菜、雞蛋(dan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)水(shui)(shui)(shui)產品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)下(xia)降(jiang)10.8%、6.8%、1.6%和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)0.2%，降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)均有收窄(zhai)；鮮(xian)果價(jia)(jia)格(ge)由(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)1.8%轉為(wei)(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.9%；豬肉(rou)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)6.7%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)有所擴(kuo)大。三是扣(kou)除食(shi)品(pin)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)能源價(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)核心(xin)CPI明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)回升，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)由(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)0.1%轉為(wei)(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.5%。其中，服(fu)(fu)務價(jia)(jia)格(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)由(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)0.4%轉為(wei)(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.3%，對(dui)(dui)CPI的(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)由(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)拉0.15個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)轉為(wei)(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)拉0.13個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。服(fu)(fu)務中，家政服(fu)(fu)務、美發(fa)、文(wen)(wen)化娛樂服(fu)(fu)務價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.4%、1.2%和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)0.7%，養老(lao)服(fu)(fu)務和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)教育服(fu)(fu)務分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)1.4%和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)1.2%。扣(kou)除能源的(de)(de)工(gong)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.5%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴(kuo)大0.3個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，對(dui)(dui)CPI的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)拉影(ying)響(xiang)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)增加0.08個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。其中，文(wen)(wen)娛耐用消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)服(fu)(fu)裝價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.0%和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)1.5%。
二、PPI繼(ji)續下降，部(bu)分行業價格呈現積極(ji)變化
PPI環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降主要有(you)以(yi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)原(yuan)因：一是(shi)國(guo)際輸入性(xing)因素(su)影響國(guo)內石(shi)(shi)油和(he)部分(fen)出(chu)口行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)行。國(guo)際原(yuan)油價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)行帶動國(guo)內石(shi)(shi)油相(xiang)關行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降，其中石(shi)(shi)油和(he)天然氣開(kai)采業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降4.4%，精煉石(shi)(shi)油產(chan)(chan)品制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降1.7%，有(you)機化學原(yuan)料制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降0.2%。部分(fen)出(chu)口行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降，計(ji)算機通(tong)信和(he)其他(ta)電子設備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降0.7%，汽車(che)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降0.4%。二(er)是(shi)煤炭(tan)(tan)等(deng)能源(yuan)需(xu)求季節性(xing)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)行。北(bei)方冬季供(gong)暖(nuan)陸續結束，采暖(nuan)用(yong)煤需(xu)求下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降，電煤庫(ku)存處于高位，加之新能源(yuan)發電具有(you)一定替代作用(yong)，煤炭(tan)(tan)開(kai)采和(he)洗選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降4.3%，電力(li)熱(re)力(li)生產(chan)(chan)和(he)供(gong)應業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降0.4%，合(he)(he)計(ji)影響PPI環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降約(yue)0.10個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。三是(shi)部分(fen)原(yuan)材料行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)行。節后房(fang)地(di)產(chan)(chan)、基建項目開(kai)工(gong)較(jiao)為(wei)平穩，鋼材、水泥等(deng)生產(chan)(chan)恢復(fu)快于需(xu)求，疊加生產(chan)(chan)成(cheng)本下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降，黑色金屬冶煉和(he)壓(ya)延加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、非(fei)金屬礦物制(zhi)品業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)均下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降0.5%，合(he)(he)計(ji)影響PPI環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降約(yue)0.05個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。
高(gao)技術(shu)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)快速發展(zhan)，促消(xiao)費(fei)和(he)(he)設(she)備(bei)更新(xin)等(deng)政(zheng)策(ce)顯(xian)效(xiao)，部分行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)供需結構有所改善，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)呈現積(ji)極(ji)變(bian)化。一是高(gao)技術(shu)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)對(dui)相(xiang)關(guan)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)起到拉動作用(yong)(yong)。人工(gong)智能(neng)、高(gao)性(xing)能(neng)大模型等(deng)廣(guang)泛應用(yong)(yong)，相(xiang)關(guan)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)或降(jiang)幅收(shou)窄，可穿戴智能(neng)設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)4.6%；電(dian)子(zi)電(dian)路(lu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)、工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)自(zi)動控制(zhi)系統裝(zhuang)置制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)、電(dian)力電(dian)子(zi)元器件制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)降(jiang)幅比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月分別收(shou)窄0.6、0.4和(he)(he)0.2個百分點。飛機、船(chuan)舶等(deng)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)技術(shu)優勢明顯(xian)，航(hang)空航(hang)天器及設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.0%，船(chuan)舶及相(xiang)關(guan)裝(zhuang)置制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.7%。二是部分消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)和(he)(he)裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)需求增加價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)。促消(xiao)費(fei)和(he)(he)設(she)備(bei)更新(xin)等(deng)政(zheng)策(ce)顯(xian)效(xiao)，部分消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)和(he)(he)裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)產(chan)品(pin)需求穩步釋放。文教(jiao)工(gong)美體育和(he)(he)娛(yu)樂用(yong)(yong)品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)7.6%，皮革毛(mao)皮羽毛(mao)及其制(zhi)品(pin)和(he)(he)制(zhi)鞋(xie)業(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.5%，新(xin)能(neng)源車整車制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.1%，降(jiang)幅比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月收(shou)窄1.6個百分點；制(zhi)藥(yao)專(zhuan)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)6.1%，包(bao)裝(zhuang)專(zhuan)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)1.9%，紡織專(zhuan)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.2%。此外(wai)，春耕(geng)備(bei)耕(geng)帶動農資產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)季節性(xing)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。春耕(geng)備(bei)耕(geng)工(gong)作正由南(nan)向北陸續(xu)展(zhan)開，農資產(chan)品(pin)需求增加，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)環比(bi)(bi)(bi)有所上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，肥(fei)料制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.5%，播種(zhong)機價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.7%，除草用(yong)(yong)原藥(yao)及制(zhi)劑(ji)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.4%，場上(shang)(shang)(shang)作業(ye)(ye)(ye)機械價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.2%。
來源：國家統計局
